Franz Wagner: Shattering Ceilings

Detailing Franz' underrated potential as a jumbo-creator and future NBA star

What if I told you there is a 6’9 forward out there that possesses high-level movement skills, playmaking chops that rival some of the best at his position, and is a burgeoning self-creator exploring new ways to generate offense? What if I then told you that this player has not even turned 21 years old yet? Most of you would scream “future star!”. Heck, some would probably take to Twitter drawing up trades and discussing ways to get him on their favorite team.

Well, the guy that fits this bill and then some has a name - Franz Wagner. Franz is coming off of an incredible rookie campaign, averaging 15.2 PTS, 4.5 REB, 2.9 AST, and just 1.5 TO on a very respectable 55.9 TS%. Yet, he isn’t receiving the same attention that some of his other classmates have enjoyed. The media, fans, and even those within organizations themselves adhere to this preconceived notion that he’ll be nothing more than a high-end role player at his peak, serving in a valuable supporting role but never being featured as one of the main cogs of a winning team. This, however, couldn’t be further from the truth and I’d even argue that he has shattered this ceiling in just his first season.

So what makes Franz so special?

From Connector to Elite Self-Generator

Getting to the rim is one of the crucial components of creation. Getting there by yourself is the most effective way to bend a defense, compromising the integrity of the unit by forcing rotations and forging openings that you or your teammates can capitalize on. Wagner generated 4.0 Unassisted Rim FGA/75, landing in the 92nd percentile among all players according to BBall Index. And while Franz won’t explode past defenders with a lethal first-step akin to the more dynamite drivers of the world, his size, handle, and overall creativity/diversity in attack that improved as the season progressed allowed him to manufacture shots at the basket analogous to the elites of the sport.

Wagner has a 6’9 frame at his disposal that comes with improved flexibility (compared to his college days), and this enhancement in flexibility has allowed Franz to finally match body with brain. Always able to detect creases in the defense immediately after they open up, Franz now utilizes sharper movements to finally attack these tighter spaces on drives.

Wagner employs a variety of creative moves to beat defenders, perhaps his favorite being a Eurostep synchronous with a high gather that leads to a patented Franz floater (17th most potent in the league per The BBall Index’s Floater Shot-Making stat), as seen here against all-world defender Giannis Antetokounmpo:

He’s especially adept at punishing backpedaling defenders, shown here vs Kristaps Porzingis:

Franz baits KP into committing to a right-handed drive, getting Porzingis to shift his body-weight in that direction before quickly reversing course, using his right to shield off a late contest and smoothly finish with his off-hand.

These off-hand finishes are a key part of Franz’ attack. A truly ambidextrous finisher, Wagner lulls defenses with an array of left-handed teardrops, finger-rolls, and even hooks - all with a level of uncertainty that leaves defenders on their heels as to what Franz will look to set up next.

Despite consistently finding ways to generate paint shots at an awesome rate, converting on these remains a barrier to true rim self-creation superstardom. Wagner ranked in the 59th percentile in Adjusted FG% at the Rim, certainly not poor but it’s a far cry from the upper-echelon that Franz hopes to reach. Perhaps adding strength to his frame will improve this mark, allowing Franz to better absorb contact and power through rim protectors instead of shying away from contact and being pushed off of his spots by stronger defenders - evidenced by his 19.4% Contact Finish Rate, a measure that landed him in just the 39th percentile of all players this season.

Pairing elite rim-creation with even above average shot-making at the basket is a devastating combination that only a very few possess, and the fact that it’s not an unrealistic objective is a true testament to his craft.

Pick and Roll: A Future Strength?

The ability to function in the pick-and-roll is essential for any player taking on large on-ball responsibilities. Generally speaking, it’s the base and most run action in every NBA offense, the bread-and-butter for creators, so how did Franz fare in this role?

The Magic generated 0.85 Points-Per-Possession with Wagner as the pick-and-roll ballhandler (73rd percentile), a positive mark taking into consideration that he was a first-year player dealing with F Lineup Spacing and F Lineup Finishing (An estimate of the spacing of lineups and finishing talent of teammates the player played alongside in lineups, via The-Basketball-Index).

Wagner’s passing is nothing short of flat-out impressive and borderline incredible for his height. He can recognize breakdowns while instantaneously firing precise darts that land right on target - bullseye.

It wasn’t just the accuracy or timing of these that put his brilliance on full display, but the wide variety of passes that he had stowed away in his bag-of-tricks.

Slick underhanded dimes that split defenders, corner passes, drawing two high and then floating it over-the-top (an advantage of being 6’9) - Franz did it all.

Franz developed a special connection with Wendell Carter Jr. with the two often connecting on handoffs that flowed in pick-and-rolls, with empty-corner PnR’s almost always yielding awesome results.

There are clear avenues to improvement, like always. Wagner likes to take the first opening available à la “making the right pass”, a strategy that will never cost a team. However, he can generate even better shots with a bit more patience and developing manipulation techniques that players usually acquire with higher usage in these areas as they get more comfortable and work things out through trial-and-error. Discovering ways to get the defense to do what he wants and exploiting it will push Franz into another stratosphere.

Pull-Up Shooting + Diversifying Shot Profile

Some of the most lethal perimeter creators can stretch defenses thin with a pull-up jumper that strikes fear into an opposing defender’s heart, punishing a unit for any sort of miscommunication that leaves even an inch of space open to get a shot off.

Franz shot 32.4% on pull-up 3’s, and they made up 39% of his 3.4 3PA/G share. That 32.4% rate ranked in just the 60th percentile and the volume wasn’t there for Wagner to command respect on these attempts. Defenders went under on screens vs Wagner, not comfortable with selling out to him. Improving this mark and forcing defenses to step-up and occasionally overreact to the threat of a Franz three would open up even better driving lanes and create more advantages for him to capitalize on, leading to more efficient offense for the Magic as a whole.

While shots at the rim and from deep dominate modern-day NBA shot diets, there is still an inherent value in having a sophisticated mid-range game get to fall back on as possessions break down.

There were moments where Franz would create an open mid-range jumper, often time by virtue of reacting to what the defense was giving him, only for him to hesitate and/or pass out of it.

Long Mid-Range shots made up only 3% of Franz’ overall attempts last season, per CleaningTheGlass, going just 8/26 from this spot.

It shouldn’t be one’s main source of offense (unless you’re one of the very best at it), but it is an area that Wagner should explore adding to his arsenal. A diversified shot-profile would bode very well for his on-ball prospects, especially when he possesses above-average to elite skills in so many other areas.

Overall, Franz is a very, very good and exciting young player coming off of a fantastic rookie season. One that perplexingly didn’t garner as much attention as it should have. With the right development process, there’s no doubt in my mind that Franz Wagner can and will become one of the premier jumbo-creators the league has to offer, so watch out - you might see him torment your favorite team on a nightly basis in the near future.